Who's Laughing Now?

Tomorrow's Results Tonight

Let's keep the predictions short and sweet:

ELECTORAL VOTE: Obama 419, McCain 119

POPULAR VOTE: Obama 54%, McCain 42%, Barr 2%, Nader 1%, McKinney 0% (rounding to the nearest percentage point)

KERRY/GORE STATES: Obama wins them all

TOSS-UP STATES: Obama wins Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia

SURPRISE STATES: Obama wins Arizona, Louisiana, and at least one electoral vote from Nebraska

STATES WHERE I'M HEDGING MY BET: Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia -- I don't think Obama will win these, but if it's as big as it could be, these states will be closer than expected, even if they don't tip.

SENATE SEATS: Dems net +11 seats (including wins for Martin in Georgia and Musgrove in Mississippi)

CLOSEST SENATE RESULT: McConnell/Lunsford in Kentucky

BIGGEST SENATE SURPRISES: Graham/Conley in South Carolina, Johanns/Kleeb in Nebraska, and Cornyn/Noriega in Texas (These will be much closer than expected, and the Dems may pick up one of these seats.)

HOUSE SEATS: Dems net +42 seats (including seats in Alaska, Idaho, and Wyoming)

BIGGEST HOUSE SURPRISES: Dems take total control of all House seats in New England and Minnesota, and all but 2 in New York; their margin in the Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, and CO) goes from 10 of 21 seats to 16 of 21 seats

GOVERNORSHIPS: Dems hold North Carolina and Washington and pick up seats in Indiana and Missouri, for a total of 30 governorships

FUN GUBERNATORIAL FACT: Indiana would thus have its first female governor in Jill Long Thompson, and North Carolina its first female governor in Bev Perdue. If both women win, then in January there will be nine U.S. states with female governors, the highest number at any one time in U.S. history.

HOW LATE WILL I GO TO BED?: I might not. But then I have Wednesday and Thursday off. (Wednesday night I'm going to the "Celebrate Obama" event at the Texas Embassy, so that could be a late one . . . )

Another November 4

On November 4, 1980, the American people elected Ronald Wilson Reagan of California as our 40th president in a landslide. He won the popular vote by 10 points, trouncing President Carter 489-49 in the Electoral College. On President-Elect Reagan's coattails, Republicans netted a gain of 12 seats in the Senate, putting them in control of that house of Congress for the first time in decades.

Interestingly, Carter had held a narrow lead in the polls until right up before Election Day, as there was a sense (among the media, at least) that voters would not trust Reagan to run the country. He was too far to the right, a "right-wing nutcase," even. And then, on November 4, 1980, he won in a landslide that redefined America as a center-right nation for a generation.

And now, this Tuesday, some 28 years later, a generation later, another November 4 sees another monumental election in our nation's history. And I predict, just as on that past November 4, the polls have failed to reflect the true momentum of what has come to pass.

The fact is, we are no longer a center-right nation. Party ID has shifted massively from a slight advantage for Republicans to a much more sizable advantage for Democrats, and also an increased edge for independents. Are we a center-left nation? That remains to be seen. But the nation, as a whole, is a much bigger tent than it used to be.

And people are hurting, and much more open to the possibilities. And that's because the last eight years have seen a massive failure of all the institutions on which we thought we could rely. Banks have failed. People have lost much of their savings, their retirement funds. They've lost their homes. Three thousand people were murdered on September 11, 2001, and we have failed to apprehend the culprits, let alone bring them to justice.

Instead, our government lied its way into an unrelated war, all while relegating extraconstitutional powers to the vice-president, withdrawing from the Geneva Conventions, and authorizing torture and other profound violations of our most fundamental principles. Here, I am speaking not only of the Constitution, but of our sense that we, as Americans, must hold ourselves to a higher standard, because we are the standard to which the world aspires. To paraphrase President Reagan, and the Americans who came before, we are that city on a hill.

And yet, in the aftermath of the bloodiest day on the American mainland since the Civil War, our leaders failed us. There was no true call to national unity, no sense of a need for moral courage, of a calling higher than our own individual interests. Instead, the president told us to go shopping. All the while, the Congress ratcheted up spending, not only on defense, but increasing entitlements to a level surpassing that of Lyndon Johnson.

In retrospect, then, it's no surprise that Americans drowned on their rooftops and starved on the streets of one of our great cities for nearly a week before the government could figure out where they were and how to save them. And now, with the financial industry on the brink, and unwilling to spend its own capital to save itself, the government writes a blank check, nationalizing banks nearly destroyed by their own greed.

And the debt. The unthinkable debt. Since the fiscal year ended September 30th, we have already added an additional $500 billion to the national debt. This is as much as was added in the entire last fiscal year. Now it's well above $10 trillion and counting.

That number is so large, it's nearly unfathomable. What people see is their own bottom line. They're not making much more than they used to, but they can't buy as much. And we're talking basics, like gas, like milk. And employers are cutting back on health care.

In short, the nation is ready for a change. And actually, I don't think it was at all a sure thing for a Democrat to win this year, or to win big. A Republican that could have run strong on economic issues, connecting to the concerns of middle class and working class voters, could have had a chance. We could have had a debate on economic policy, instead of hearing the same BS talking points again and again and again.

But even that's not the fundamental problem with McCain's campaign, and the major asset of Obama's. Obama spoke in the language of American exceptionalism. McCain never did. To be fair, that's not the type of guy McCain is; he's something of a fatalist, if a romanticized one. He may have ridden to office on Reagan's coattails, but McCain was never an American exceptionalist. Obama is one, in his truest heart; really, he has to be, when you think about where he's come from.

What do I mean? Take this final viral video as an example:

Every so often, there are times when America must rise to meet a moment. And our moment is now. This is our moment. This is our time to unite in common purpose, to make this century the next American century. Let's go change the world.

Yes, obviously, it's a campaign speech. But there you have the essence of American exceptionalism that has been so lacking the last eight years: yes, the stakes are higher than they've been in decades. But together, we can meet the challenges we face, and the challenges to come. Together, united once again in our common purpose, this still-young century could be as great as the one that's past.

And, in short, I think that's why Obama will not just win, but win with a margin that's comparable to Reagan's. Sure, get-out-the-vote is a big factor, enthusiasm among the young and among African Americans is a factor. But the young and the black do not deliver a margin of 10 points or more.

If, tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, things end up blowing up as big as I think they will, you will hear a lot more about President Reagan, measuring his victory -- and his temperament, and his sense of America's greatness and great promise -- against that of America's 44th president-elect, Barack Hussein Obama of Illinois.

Toss-Up States

Here's my list of toss-up states for Election '08:

- In the Midwest: Ohio (20 E.V.), Indiana (11 E.V.), Missouri (11 E.V.), Nebraska CD-2 (1 E.V.)
- In the South: North Carolina (15 E.V.), Florida (27 E.V.)
- In the Southwest: Nevada (5 E.V.)

These states (and one Congressional district) have a total of 90 electoral votes. Also, N.B. that these states (and CD) all voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004.

To get to 270, McCain has to win ALL of these states (and CD), plus at least 18 electoral votes from the McCain longshot category.

Here's the kicker, folks: Obama does not need to win any of these states.

Here's why: Add up the electoral votes from the Obama's floor states and the McCain longshot states (from below). Obama's floor (234 E.V.) plus McCain longshots (52 E.V.) give him 286 electoral votes, and make him the 44th president of the United States.

So Obama can win without Ohio or Florida (or even Nevada).

Now, if someone McCain did pull out a win in Pennsylvania, Obama could still win by picking up a state from this list -- even Nevada, with its 5 E.V., would put him back to 270.

Basically, then, McCain can only win if it's super-close, and even then, he has a very specific path to victory.

McCain's Longshots

In my electoral map, here are the states that I consider longshots for McCain to pickup. Based on extensive close reading of poll results and news reports from these states over the last six months, I seriously doubt any of them will turn red next Tuesday.

Still, I've listed them here in the sake of fairness. (Also, to highlight the desperation of McCain's strategy, which I'll explain shortly.) Here are the states:

- In the Northeast: Pennsylvania (21 E.V.) and New Hampshire (4 E.V.)
- In the South: Virginia (13 E.V.)
- In the Southwest: Colorado (9 E.V.) and New Mexico (5 E.V.)

N.B. that to get to 270, McCain will need at least 18 electoral votes from this list. That assumes that he has already won ALL the McCain's floor states and Obama longshot states as listed below, and ALL the toss-up states listed above.

So McCain can't win the election unless he wins one of the following:
- Pennsylvania (for a total of 273 E.V.)
- Virginia and Colorado (for a total of 274 E.V.)
- Virginia and New Mexico (for a total of 270 E.V.)
- Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire (for a total of 270 E.V.)

If you look at Obama's leads in Virginia and Colorado, you can see why Team McCain might double-down everything on Pennsylvania, and a Cracker Country strategy there. It's the only state on this list with a large enough Cracker Country populace that it might just work.

Obama's Floor

Looking at it from the other side, here are the states that I consider to be Obama's floor -- states that McCain has no chance of winning:

- In the Northeast: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia
- In the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
- In the West: California, Oregon, Washington

These states, with 234 votes, are Obama's floor. Barring a major disaster and screw-up by Obama, these are states (plus DC) McCain will not win.

Technically, Pennsylvania should be on this list, but I am leaving it out, as McCain's entire strategy for winning is based on winning Pennsylvania. I think this is all but impossible at this point, but will indulge the senior senator, if for no other reason than the sake of suspense.

Obama Longshots

In my electoral map, here are the states that I consider longshots for Obama to pickup. But you could well see them turning blue next Tuesday, ordered here from least to most likely (within each category, and among categories overall):

- Cracker Country surprises: South Dakota, Alaska, and Nebraska CD-1 (7 E.V.)
- Cracker Country outliers: West Virginia, Arkansas, North Dakota, Montana (17 E.V.)
- Dixie surprises: Louisiana, South Carolina, Mississippi (23 E.V.)
- Southwest outliers: Arizona (10 E.V.)
- Dixie outliers: Georgia (15 E.V.)

These 11 states (and 2 Congressional districts) have a total of 72 electoral votes. Give them all to McCain, along with his "floor" states, and he has a total of 162 electoral votes.