Toss-Up States

Here's my list of toss-up states for Election '08:

- In the Midwest: Ohio (20 E.V.), Indiana (11 E.V.), Missouri (11 E.V.), Nebraska CD-2 (1 E.V.)
- In the South: North Carolina (15 E.V.), Florida (27 E.V.)
- In the Southwest: Nevada (5 E.V.)

These states (and one Congressional district) have a total of 90 electoral votes. Also, N.B. that these states (and CD) all voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004.

To get to 270, McCain has to win ALL of these states (and CD), plus at least 18 electoral votes from the McCain longshot category.

Here's the kicker, folks: Obama does not need to win any of these states.

Here's why: Add up the electoral votes from the Obama's floor states and the McCain longshot states (from below). Obama's floor (234 E.V.) plus McCain longshots (52 E.V.) give him 286 electoral votes, and make him the 44th president of the United States.

So Obama can win without Ohio or Florida (or even Nevada).

Now, if someone McCain did pull out a win in Pennsylvania, Obama could still win by picking up a state from this list -- even Nevada, with its 5 E.V., would put him back to 270.

Basically, then, McCain can only win if it's super-close, and even then, he has a very specific path to victory.