McCain's Longshots

In my electoral map, here are the states that I consider longshots for McCain to pickup. Based on extensive close reading of poll results and news reports from these states over the last six months, I seriously doubt any of them will turn red next Tuesday.

Still, I've listed them here in the sake of fairness. (Also, to highlight the desperation of McCain's strategy, which I'll explain shortly.) Here are the states:

- In the Northeast: Pennsylvania (21 E.V.) and New Hampshire (4 E.V.)
- In the South: Virginia (13 E.V.)
- In the Southwest: Colorado (9 E.V.) and New Mexico (5 E.V.)

N.B. that to get to 270, McCain will need at least 18 electoral votes from this list. That assumes that he has already won ALL the McCain's floor states and Obama longshot states as listed below, and ALL the toss-up states listed above.

So McCain can't win the election unless he wins one of the following:
- Pennsylvania (for a total of 273 E.V.)
- Virginia and Colorado (for a total of 274 E.V.)
- Virginia and New Mexico (for a total of 270 E.V.)
- Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire (for a total of 270 E.V.)

If you look at Obama's leads in Virginia and Colorado, you can see why Team McCain might double-down everything on Pennsylvania, and a Cracker Country strategy there. It's the only state on this list with a large enough Cracker Country populace that it might just work.