Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Tomorrow's Results Tonight

Let's keep the predictions short and sweet:

ELECTORAL VOTE: Obama 419, McCain 119

POPULAR VOTE: Obama 54%, McCain 42%, Barr 2%, Nader 1%, McKinney 0% (rounding to the nearest percentage point)

KERRY/GORE STATES: Obama wins them all

TOSS-UP STATES: Obama wins Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia

SURPRISE STATES: Obama wins Arizona, Louisiana, and at least one electoral vote from Nebraska

STATES WHERE I'M HEDGING MY BET: Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia -- I don't think Obama will win these, but if it's as big as it could be, these states will be closer than expected, even if they don't tip.

SENATE SEATS: Dems net +11 seats (including wins for Martin in Georgia and Musgrove in Mississippi)

CLOSEST SENATE RESULT: McConnell/Lunsford in Kentucky

BIGGEST SENATE SURPRISES: Graham/Conley in South Carolina, Johanns/Kleeb in Nebraska, and Cornyn/Noriega in Texas (These will be much closer than expected, and the Dems may pick up one of these seats.)

HOUSE SEATS: Dems net +42 seats (including seats in Alaska, Idaho, and Wyoming)

BIGGEST HOUSE SURPRISES: Dems take total control of all House seats in New England and Minnesota, and all but 2 in New York; their margin in the Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, and CO) goes from 10 of 21 seats to 16 of 21 seats

GOVERNORSHIPS: Dems hold North Carolina and Washington and pick up seats in Indiana and Missouri, for a total of 30 governorships

FUN GUBERNATORIAL FACT: Indiana would thus have its first female governor in Jill Long Thompson, and North Carolina its first female governor in Bev Perdue. If both women win, then in January there will be nine U.S. states with female governors, the highest number at any one time in U.S. history.

HOW LATE WILL I GO TO BED?: I might not. But then I have Wednesday and Thursday off. (Wednesday night I'm going to the "Celebrate Obama" event at the Texas Embassy, so that could be a late one . . . )

No comments: